Air cargo outlook: Demand expected to weaken in 2024.
Date：11-15 156 Belong to：News Information
Speakers at the Tiaca Executive Summit indicated that senior executives in air cargo anticipate air freight demand in 2024 to remain stable or slightly higher than this year's levels.
During the event, Rogier Blocq, Director of Product Development and Customer Support at WorldACD, expressed the most optimistic outlook for air cargo demand in 2024.
Blocq noted that WorldACD's research from 2010 to 2019 showed that year-over-year growth tends to improve in the first and second quarters compared to the final quarter of the previous year.
WorldACD's latest forecast indicates an expected growth of 1% in demand for the final quarter of this year (October -1%, November +1%, December +2%).
Considering this trend, WorldACD predicts a year-over-year growth of 2% in demand for the first quarter and 3% for the second quarter of 2024.
"We are somewhat optimistic for 2024 as we see demand recovering," Blocq stated.
However, he cautioned that due to all the uncertainties prevailing in the current market, it is difficult to predict demand for 2024.
Meanwhile, in a panel discussion, Tiaca Secretary General Glyn Hughes asked speakers about their expectations for next year compared to 2023, whether it would be similar, good, or bad.
Turhan Özen, Chief Cargo Officer of Turkish Airlines, expressed optimism about demand rebounding at the latest by the fourth quarter of next year.
He said, "Of course, there are geopolitical risks, wars, or threats of war, any form of conflict could jeopardize this."
"But if the political situation doesn't worsen—hopefully improves—eventually the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stop worrying about inflation and start focusing on economic growth," Özen added.
He further explained, "When these two areas start to rebound, air cargo will respond very positively, and I expect this no later than September next year."
Meanwhile, Yossi Shoukoun, CEO of Challenge Group, anticipated that geopolitical tensions would dampen demand expectations.
"Unfortunately, in terms of global economic and geopolitical situations, 2024 won't change much, hopefully it won't escalate, but signs are not that promising," he said.
He added that this could, in turn, put pressure on freight capacity as reduced passenger demand due to instability and rising fuel prices would lead to fewer passenger services.
He also suggested that passenger demand could be affected by extreme weather conditions. He explained that both developments would benefit maritime operators as they realize the limited cabin space.
Marco Tafuro, Head of Air Cargo for Europe at United Parcel Service (UPS), expressed optimism about growth by the end of next year, but added that the performance in the first half would follow this year's trends.
Geert Aerts, Chief Cargo and Real Estate Officer at Brussels Airport Company, noted that geopolitical tensions, recently occurring in the Middle East, had delayed the recovery of air cargo by a year.
He anticipated that demand in 2024 would remain stable or slightly increase compared to this year, but added that conditions would improve by the end of the fourth quarter next year.
"Perhaps we can recalculate towards the end of the year, but for now, we should remain neutral and delay expectations of economic recovery by a year," Aerts said.
Andrew Herdman, Chief Executive of Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals Limited, pointed out that Hong Kong Airport would benefit from the full operation of its three-runway system next year.
The airport added a third runway in 2023, but only two runways are currently operational, with an upgrade to one of the existing runways.
"I think, given all the events happening, there will be a lot of fluctuations next year, but I think we will see a slight increase compared to this year," Herdman said.
During the event, Rogier Blocq, Director of Product Development and Customer Support at WorldACD, expressed the most optimistic outlook for air cargo demand in 2024.
Blocq noted that WorldACD's research from 2010 to 2019 showed that year-over-year growth tends to improve in the first and second quarters compared to the final quarter of the previous year.
WorldACD's latest forecast indicates an expected growth of 1% in demand for the final quarter of this year (October -1%, November +1%, December +2%).
Considering this trend, WorldACD predicts a year-over-year growth of 2% in demand for the first quarter and 3% for the second quarter of 2024.
"We are somewhat optimistic for 2024 as we see demand recovering," Blocq stated.
However, he cautioned that due to all the uncertainties prevailing in the current market, it is difficult to predict demand for 2024.
Meanwhile, in a panel discussion, Tiaca Secretary General Glyn Hughes asked speakers about their expectations for next year compared to 2023, whether it would be similar, good, or bad.
Turhan Özen, Chief Cargo Officer of Turkish Airlines, expressed optimism about demand rebounding at the latest by the fourth quarter of next year.
He said, "Of course, there are geopolitical risks, wars, or threats of war, any form of conflict could jeopardize this."
"But if the political situation doesn't worsen—hopefully improves—eventually the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stop worrying about inflation and start focusing on economic growth," Özen added.
He further explained, "When these two areas start to rebound, air cargo will respond very positively, and I expect this no later than September next year."
Meanwhile, Yossi Shoukoun, CEO of Challenge Group, anticipated that geopolitical tensions would dampen demand expectations.
"Unfortunately, in terms of global economic and geopolitical situations, 2024 won't change much, hopefully it won't escalate, but signs are not that promising," he said.
He added that this could, in turn, put pressure on freight capacity as reduced passenger demand due to instability and rising fuel prices would lead to fewer passenger services.
He also suggested that passenger demand could be affected by extreme weather conditions. He explained that both developments would benefit maritime operators as they realize the limited cabin space.
Marco Tafuro, Head of Air Cargo for Europe at United Parcel Service (UPS), expressed optimism about growth by the end of next year, but added that the performance in the first half would follow this year's trends.
Geert Aerts, Chief Cargo and Real Estate Officer at Brussels Airport Company, noted that geopolitical tensions, recently occurring in the Middle East, had delayed the recovery of air cargo by a year.
He anticipated that demand in 2024 would remain stable or slightly increase compared to this year, but added that conditions would improve by the end of the fourth quarter next year.
"Perhaps we can recalculate towards the end of the year, but for now, we should remain neutral and delay expectations of economic recovery by a year," Aerts said.
Andrew Herdman, Chief Executive of Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals Limited, pointed out that Hong Kong Airport would benefit from the full operation of its three-runway system next year.
The airport added a third runway in 2023, but only two runways are currently operational, with an upgrade to one of the existing runways.
"I think, given all the events happening, there will be a lot of fluctuations next year, but I think we will see a slight increase compared to this year," Herdman said.
